Tariffs Aren’t the Endgame for Canada — It’s Annexation
Canada is about to get a lesson in realpolitik. For years, the world believed that a rules-based international order — anchored by treaties, trade agreements, and long-standing norms — would constrain even the most powerful states. President Trump’s sudden imposition of steep 25% tariffs on Canadian goods proves otherwise.
On paper, these moves make little sense. Much of the current commentary has focused on economic theory, who ultimately bears the burden of tariffs, and the impact on the American consumer. These are just distractions that miss the bigger picture. Trump is fully willing to let American consumers pay more if it means a long term win — the ultimate prize being Canada itself.
Trump’s recent comments about Canada becoming the 51st state aren’t just an off-color joke. It’s a seed planted in the minds of his base, hinting that absorption might be on the table if Canada isn’t careful.
The Illusion of Paper Shields
Canadians who point to the USMCA — the trade deal that Trump championed in his first term — remind me of Ned Stark when he confronted Cersei with a letter from Robert Baratheon. The audience expects that the government, such as it is, will honor the final wishes of their just-deceased king. Instead, Cersei tears it up and asks, “Is this meant to be your shield?”
Agreements hold weight only when you can enforce them. Trump, who’s built a career on breaking deals and stiffing rivals, knows this better than most.
Analysts fixated on the economic downsides of tariffs miss the broader strategic play. Yes, most Canadian exports to the U.S. are raw materials not easily replaced by American products, and yes, the supposed national-emergency justification for these tariffs strains credulity. Less than one percent of fentanyl and illegal crossings come through the Canadian border. But the White House’s reliance on “emergency powers” points to a deeper willingness to ignore or circumvent traditional checks on executive authority — and no Republican leaders have meaningfully pushed back.
Tariffs are not the goal
Trump’s executive orders for the tariffs on Canada and Mexico specifically mention increased tariffs if either country retaliates.
Those who call for a hardline retaliatory response might be playing right into his hands, especially with provisions in Trump’s executive orders allowing for further escalation if Canada imposes counter-tariffs.
We must avoid handing the U.S. a casus belli to intensify an already lopsided confrontation. Canada’s vulnerability is greater than many assume, and a tit-for-tat response could turn a mere trade dispute into a full-blown crisis.
Canada has less leverage than we think
Economic pressure is only one part of the American playbook. In the digital realm, there’s a very real possibility of the U.S. using sanctions-like tactics to deny Canada access to critical software, platforms, and hardware — the same approach it has taken with nations like Iran and, more recently, China.
- Software Lockouts: If U.S. authorities prohibit companies like Apple or Microsoft from providing services or updates in Canada — akin to how Iranian users are barred from the App Store — our service-driven economy could grind to a halt. Think of all the applications, security patches, and cloud infrastructures we rely on daily. Losing access to these on short notice would be devastating.
- Hardware Restrictions: We’ve already seen the U.S. compel tech giants like Nvidia and other chipmakers to restrict sales to China. A similar clampdown on exporting high-performance processors or critical components to Canada would cripple sectors ranging from AI research to advanced manufacturing.
- Open Source as a Lifeline: This scenario underscores why stronger open source ecosystems are vital. In nations under heavy U.S. sanctions, open source tools often become the only viable software solutions. Canada’s near-total reliance on proprietary platforms — and the companies that own them — constitutes a strategic vulnerability with few alternatives if the U.S. suddenly flips the switch.
In short, American tech dominance isn’t just about Facebook and Amazon. It’s an expansive ecosystem that Canada is deeply entangled in, lacking quick or easy substitutes. Once Washington decides to treat Canada the way it treats sanctioned states, the blow to our national infrastructure and economy would be immediate and severe.
China has also been developing their own alternative platforms to American technology, many of which are open source. Deepseek, the Chinese open source AI model released in January 2025, proved that America’s grip on technology might not be as strong as they believed.
Should Canada Retaliate?
The visceral response to Trump’s tariffs and rhetoric is to strike back, an impulse fueled by national pride. Yet mirroring American aggression may simply invite further escalation. Each retaliatory measure risks reinforcing the U.S. narrative that Canada is picking an unnecessary fight — handing the White House political cover to tighten the screws further.
A more prudent path is strategic diversification. Canada must reduce its dependence on the American market, develop homegrown tech infrastructure (including open source alternatives), and strengthen alliances that don’t hinge on Washington’s current whims. In an environment where the White House can rewrite the rules overnight, self-reliance and broader partnerships offer the only real protection against future shocks.
Preparing for a New Era of Realpolitik
This moment forces Canada to confront a harsh truth: power can trump promises in international affairs. Complacency is a luxury we can no longer afford. Our leaders should resist the temptation to battle fire with fire, thereby entering a spiral of retaliatory measures that would do more harm than good. Instead, we need a clear-eyed, long-term approach — one that invests in resilience and protects our sovereignty.
Trump’s recent “joke” about Prime Minister Trudeau being the “governor of Canada” and his casual musings about making Canada the 51st state are far from harmless banter. Public opinion in the U.S. can shift rapidly under the right circumstances, and Canadians should not expect sympathy or restraint from a neighbour whose leader is sowing seeds of annexationist rhetoric.
The true challenge is not just about shielding our industries or stabilizing consumer prices. It’s about preserving our sovereignty in a world where hard power increasingly overrides diplomatic niceties. As we brace for the next unilateral salvo, our best defense is to ensure that Canada stands on a foundation of independence: economically, technologically, and politically.
Canada’s lesson in realpolitik is only beginning. We must revise our assumptions, cultivate new alliances, and bolster our self-reliance — before the next treaty is ripped apart and our once-assumed protections under the rules-based order prove to be nothing more than paper in the wind.
